Will spacex launch starship to orbit in 2026?
87%very likely · about a 7-in-8 chance
The crowd puts Starship reaching Earth orbit in 2026 at about 87%—roughly a 7-in-8 shot. The real story: this bet is really a proxy for whether SpaceX beats Blue Origin to space. The crowd is confident SpaceX will orbit before Blue Origin lands on the Moon (that race sits at a coin toss, 50-50). But here's the catch: only about $5k is actually riding on the Starship question itself, and there's just one market watching it. The picture is stable and hasn't moved much, which is reassuring—but the thin volume means a few big trades could shift it quickly.
- Barely moved in the last day — the picture is stable.
- Only one market is available, so there's no cross-check on this estimate yet.
- Only $5k is riding on this — light money, so the number can move easily.
- This read comes only from community forecasts, so there's no second type of crowd to cross-check it.
Chronovisor AI turns live prediction markets into a plain-English read. Informational only — not betting or financial advice. Voynich Tech. Explore more forecasts →