Will openai release gpt 5 in 2026?
37%leaning no · about a 1-in-3 chance
The crowd puts the odds of OpenAI releasing GPT-5 by the end of 2026 at around 37%—roughly a 1-in-3 shot. That's leaning toward no, but the picture is genuinely uncertain: the markets disagree sharply on how likely it is, and the momentum has been ticking upward over the past week. The real story, though, is that very little money is actually riding on this call—only about $10k total—so the odds can wobble easily.
- Up 4 points over the past week — the odds are hardening toward yes.
- The markets disagree by up to 84 points — genuine uncertainty, not a settled call.
- Only $10k is riding on this — light money, so the number can move easily.
- This read comes only from money-backed markets, so there's no second type of crowd to cross-check it.
Chronovisor AI turns live prediction markets into a plain-English read. Informational only — not betting or financial advice. Voynich Tech. Explore more forecasts →