Will openai release gpt 5 in 2026?
The crowd is forecasting about a 41% chance OpenAI releases GPT-5 in 2026 — closer to a coin toss that tilts toward *no*. The real story is buried in the related markets: Astra (OpenAI's newer model) has an 82% chance of beating GPT-5's capabilities, and there's only a 21% chance Astra stays unreleased through November 2026. Translation: the crowd expects OpenAI to ship *something* powerful this year, but probably not under the GPT-5 name. The odds have climbed 4 points in a week on very light trading ($69k total), and there's a striking split — community forecasters think it's much more likely (44 points higher) than money-backed traders do, suggesting enthusiasm versus caution.
- Up 4 points over the past week (about 1 point a day) — the odds are hardening toward yes.
- The 11 markets broadly agree, with some spread — a reasonable but not airtight read.
- Only $69k is riding on this — light money, so the number can move easily.
- Community forecasts sit 44 points above money-backed markets — a real split worth watching.
Chronovisor AI turns live prediction markets into a plain-English read. Informational only — not betting or financial advice. Voynich Tech. Explore more forecasts →