Will nasa return astronauts to the moon in 2026?

The crowd puts NASA's return to the moon in 2026 at about 69%—roughly a 2-in-3 chance. That's a solid lean toward 'likely,' but here's the catch: the markets disagree by nearly 50 points, which tells you this isn't settled. Money-backed markets are more skeptical (closer to 40%), while community forecasters are more bullish (around 85%). The real driver isn't just the timing of NASA's Artemis program itself—it's whether SpaceX and Blue Origin will beat NASA to the punch, and which country (or company) will actually get there first. The picture has held steady lately with no big momentum shifts, so the crowd's uncertain middle ground is holding.

• Barely moved in the last day — the picture is stable.
• The markets disagree by up to 49 points — genuine uncertainty, not a settled call.
• $162k is in play — a decent amount of money supports this read.
• Community forecasts sit 44 points above money-backed markets — a real split worth watching.

Blended from 3 prediction markets · updated 4 Jul 2026

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