Will global temperatures set a record in 2026?
The crowd forecasts about a 1-in-7 chance (15%) that global temperatures will hit a record in 2026, and that view hasn't budged in recent weeks. But here's the catch: the real story is hiding in the temperature granularity. The money is almost entirely convinced (99%) that August 2026 will be more than 1.29°C warmer than baseline — meaning the crowd actually expects further warming, just not a *record* per se. The split comes in how much warming: whether it lands in the 1.25–1.29°C range or blows past 1.29°C. That's a debate within an already-warm scenario. Only $14k is staked across all these markets, though, so the odds can shift on modest new trading.
- Barely moved over the past week — the picture is stable.
- The markets disagree by up to 99 points — genuine uncertainty, not a settled call.
- Only $14k is riding on this — light money, so the number can move easily.
- This read comes only from money-backed markets, so there's no second type of crowd to cross-check it.
Chronovisor AI turns live prediction markets into a plain-English read. Informational only — not betting or financial advice. Voynich Tech. Explore more forecasts →